Today's Russian Navy, with some speculation...

Here's a RIA Novosti Infographic link showing the current composition of the active duty Russian Navy...

http://www.en.rian.ru/infographics/20120801/174900219.html

Something to consider... The activity levels of most navy's run something like this...

30% Deployed
30% in Training, can be deployed if needed
30% in Maintenance

Now look at the Russian Pacific fleet. If an offensive task force was formed, possibly including amphibious capability, the fleets major combatants include...
2-CG/BCGN
8-DDG
4-LST

So, on any given day, they could only field...
1-CG/BCGN
5 or 6-DDG
2 or 3-LST

Considering the US Navy has a battlegroup and / or independant deployed warships in the area that equal the max available Russian task force, PLUS a CVN, not including the ones in Japan, Guam or Hawaii ready to rock if needed, and not considering the SK, Japanese or Australians ... and the Russian menace would appear to be meaningless, except as a spoiler force using Sea Denial tactics with raids and submarines ...with a 20-minute lifespan

So, what am I saying? The DOD is all about China being the big boogey-man ...that's why we're building our alliances and forces there. The Russians are has-been's.

There's an ongoing debate, one that never makes the news because no one cares ...yet. China is the emerging threat, but Russia isn't gone. Russia and China may be each others worst friends. China's been stealing Russian tech and practically colonizing Siberia. China is not only approaching parity with us, but they'll beat Russia even sooner ...and Russia is at a greater disability versus China than we are. If anything, Russia should fear China to a greater degree than us.

So, what about Russia? High gas prices over the last few years have benefited the Russian's much more than the Saudi's. They've initiated alot of advanced weapons and military modernization programs. When China hits that so-called break even with the US in 2020 - 2050, so will the Russians. But no one is watching, and no one is asking what the Russian's are planning to do with those CVN's, heavy cruisers, Mistral amphibious ships and SSBN's.

Most commentators think they're just blowing cash on trophy systems, when they should be building FFG's instead, and coordinating with NATO ...because they'll be joining NATO anyway. But considering everything the Russian's have been saying, and building, and saying "no" too ...then let's look at a map and do some projections.

If China is Russia's main perceived threat, then one could expect Russia to react to the China break-even date by consolidating a mutual defense partnership of some sort with NATO / Europe by that time. Why? because China is a bigger threat to Russia than to us. All the US has to do is spoil China's ability to project naval & air power, and dent the PLA into a stalemate ...not that hard. But Russia has the full Chinese army to contend with, and a bigger modern navy right next door ...a very unpleasant proposition. Russia, in spite of all it's pride and bluster, will need the US / Europe / pro-west alliances to add counterweight versus the Chinese, or they can kiss Siberia goodbye long before the US looses anything of true value in the Pacific.

BUT, if Russia doesn't act to counter the Chinese in time, and continues the current track, then China isn't their main concern ...it's the US. Russia will use the Chinese to blunt and distract us, then act on the flanks to solidify it's world powerbase. It may even use it's economic supply-side influence to isolate Europe from the US, and maybe even form a Russo-centric alliance with Europe, asia and or the middle-east, instead of a NATO-centric one, or one that emphasises US primacy in any way.

So Russia is now reaching our to Europe, buying ships and systems, and even Israeli drone systems. But is it's purpose to gradually melt into the west, or to gain a power position able to usurp the US?

The next ten years could be very telling indeed...