Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Iran watch notice

During my daily news sweep for news that makes me go hmmm, I read this by Debka

http://debka.com/article/22422/US-sources-US-Israel-plan-October-Surprise-Others-Israel-can-do-it-alone

I generally take their info with grain of salt, extract useful info and move on. Something about this one deserved more checking and flash notification.

  • The gist of the report is that Iran and Israel is potentially openly sparring,
  • that Iran is tightly coordinating rocket strikes from Gaza and Lebanon, using one to offset other and retaliate for the other,
  • that Israel now has the resources to go it alone if needed,
  • That current assessments of the Iranian nuclear program suggest they have enough uranium to begin bomb construction this November,
  • And that the US and Israel have 20-days to agree to strike
When I double check my info, I find...
  • If they decide to attack, then all strike resources need to be available in theater
  • USAF currently has F-22's in theater, and it was noticed by watchers that USMC F-18's deployed "somewhere", possibly in EUCOM or CENTCOM last week,
  • The US has been boosting ground assets in the area, in various check-point areas like Djibouti, Oman, UAE,
  • The US Navy has 2-CVNs in Arabian Sea, 1-LHD in Indian Ocean, 1-MCM Sea Base in Arabian Gulf, just concluded a major MCM exercise,
  • The US Navy has 2-CVNs within 2-4 days strike range (USS Stennis entered the Indian Ocean Oct 6, is replacing Enterprise; USS Washington was at Port Klang, Malaysia  on Oct 7), and 2-ARG (LHA Peleliu, LHD BH Richard) within 7-days strike range;
  • The Europeans have the de Gaulle within 3-days strike range (EST placement off Syria if needed), likewise with the ITS Cavour, and 5-days for the HMS Illustious
We appear to be entering a window of opportunity, both militarily and possibly politically. The political opportunity for the US depends heavily on how Obama calculates such a strike will affect his re-election prospects.


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