Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Iran window closes?

....and just as fast as the Iran action watch window opened ...now it's closed. Apparently Enterprise left CENTCOM just as Stennis and Washington entered it. I was curious about Enterprise because they hadn't said much of nothing for about two weeks. Now we know why ...the transited the Suez on the twelfth. Likewise, the Washington did a U-Turn in the Andaman Sea and returned to the S. China Sea for bilateral exercises with Malaysia.

This leaves Ike on task and Stennis on the way. Neither Enterprise or Washington is able to respond within 7-days unless something dramatic happens right now. That means only the USAF has the necessary assets  to respond by the end on the 20-day decision window ...which means nothing will happen.

...unless Obama wants it to be an AF only show. The Navy does have the needed assets to clear Hormuz of Iranian mines, but it would fall to the USAF to make most of the offensive strikes on Iranian assets. That's a weak hand, but it's one that is realistically able to be projected to happen

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