Syria SITREP (Aug 31)
Allied Attack no time soon
The various involved powers continue to
maneuver, but the expected allied massing of power is shifting
downward.
USA:
The USS Truman CSG assumed the Nimitz
CSG OEF duties in the Arabian Sea. This places them in a follow up
role at best, and probably a non-player role unless they shift into
Arabian Gulf.
The USS Kearsarge ARG seems to be
shifting eastward, as the LSD-Carter Hall made a port call in the
Seychelles. If the ARG were to participate, it would consolidate and
move westward, but they're not ...so they're not getting involved
either.
The media made hay about the addition
of a fifth destroyer to the Syria task force, but that interpretation
is wrong. The USS Stout is being sent to relieve the Mahan, not join
it ...so it's still only 4-DDG's. If the US wanted a fifth, then it
could shift the Bainbridge back to the Mediterranean from the Indian
Ocean, or donate any of the Nimitz or Truman's DDG Escorts ...but
they aren't. It was noted that the USS Barry and Gravely conducted a
surface warfare exercise with the FS Aconit between Cyprus and Crete.
This places the two lead DDG's in a defensive position outside any
Syrian anti-ship missile strike range, instead of cruising the
Lebanese or Syria coasts, which is where I would expect them to be as
an advanced screen and capable of deep scanning and even controlling
Syrian airspace with their AEGIS radar systems. The Barry is noted as
being tasked to EUCOM as an ABM patrol destroyer, so they should be
able to handle ANYTHING Syria can dish out (cruise missiles, AS
missiles, and ballistic missiles). To have it behind Cyprus means we
have no stomach for anything the Syrians might do or say, nor are we
interested in applying an advanced defensive ABM role to the
situation to protect Turkey or Europe ...or even Israel from a Syrian
strike.
The command ship USS Mt. Whitney is
still off radar after it's visit to France a couple weeks ago. It
should technically be available for deployment to Syria on short
notice, but has yet to announce any participation.
UNITED KINGDOM:
The UK amphibious battle-group,
currently deployed for the COUGAR 2013 (Mediterranean and Indian
Ocean), is busy launching planned amphibious training exercises off
Albania. The 2-FFG escorts remain west of Cyprus ...they aren't
involved. So far the RAF has sent only an additional 6-Typhoon
fighter-bombers to Cyprus. That's not enough to matter or care, and
the House of Commons seems to prefer that as the official response.
FRANCE:
No noted activity directed at Syria
...talk is cheap.
RUSSIA:
The only country to do something
interesting is Russia. The Moskva Task Force is being sent to the
Mediterranean to supplement their patrol there ...which means nothing
special because they were going to do that anyway, and nothing in
their patrol schedule has changed much. The Russians also mentioned
that the RFS Varyag from the Pacific Fleet would sortie out to the
Mediterranean ...which means nothing because it easily takes a month
to get there. However, once the Moskva and/or the Varyag get there,
the Russian task force will be scarey enough to keep NATO on edge.
However, all things considered, in spite of all the talk, NEVER would
Russia take forceful action against NATO on account of Syria. Syria
just isn't that important, and Russia won't risk their flagships
being shot full of holes and irreparably lost. Instead, having such
powerful flagships in theater provides valuable assets on hand for
other things, such as monitoring NATO / US operational abilities (IE.
spying), being available in case Russia needs to directly act in
Syria (IE. evacuations or direct covert actions), and for waving a
big anti-US flag and looking like they really care in diplomatic
circles.
CHINA:
The 14th and 15th
Escort Task Forces remain in the Gulf of Aden, and if they wanted to
respond, then they could within 3-days or so. Such a response would
probably be noted as you can't pass through the Suez Canal without
someone seeing it ...then everyone would be wondering why they're
sticking their nose into NATO's business. True, NATO said they
officially don't want to get involved in Syria, but make no mistake,
the Mediterranean belongs to NATO, and nothing happens there without
their concurrence. The US might act alone, but NATO will be involved.
WHAT I'M WATCHING FOR:
Right now any action would be very
limited (DDG cruise missile strikes, USAF B1 / B2 bombers and/or
fighter-bombers). The US is maintaining a checkmate position on Iran,
but has brought very little to bear on Syria itself. Our current
position is defensive, and even that is minimal. We have the ability
to slap a good coastal blockade with our DDG's (with excellent ADA /
ABM abilities), but it's not been done yet. The only command elements
brought to bear on the situation are CENTCOM Army / USAF resources.
No naval command resources are on task yet other than the standard
EUCOM C4 command chain from NATO. No CVN's are on task ...no cruisers
either ...so, nothing is happening any time soon.
But, if these movements or options go
into play, then the attack timer will resume.
- USS Mt. Whitney heads into East Mediterranean.
- USS Nimitz CSG heads into Red Sea, or half it's escorts (1-CG and 1-DDG), transit the Suez. If the CSG heads into Red Sea, it may indicate a near term attack, because the carrier is due back home very soon. If the escorts move into the Mediterranean, then it may indicate an effort to reinforce the current mission in the Mediterranean with added command, strike and ADA/ABM abilities.
- USS George HW Bush CSG deploys before completing JTFEX at home (indicates 2-week attack window).
- USS Bainbridge returns to Mediterranean post-haste.
- NATO-SNMG-1 returns to Mediterranean post-haste.
- UK debate resumes, and Type-45 DDGs and more RAF head that direction.
- French CVN heads into Mediterranean, with at least 1-Forbin Class DDG joining, and 1+ Stealth FFG joining, and/or the FS Aconit staying in the Mediterranean.
- French AF fighters shifting around.
- French amphibious ships (Mistral-Class) heading into Mediterranean (to support their UNIFIL troops deployed in Lebanon)
- Italian CV or amphibious ships heading into Mediterranean (this may mean they likewise sense the immediate need to support their unit deployed to UNIFIL in Lebanon).
- NOTE: USS Kearsarge heading into Mediterranean doesn't indicate a strike. The Boxer is en-route to relieve them, and the Kearsarge is due home soon. The idea of having an amphibious strike group in Mediterranean might attract lots of media attention, but there isn't any need for them except as a covert action insertion group, in case something or someone requires capture and extraction, and I'm sure existing Army / Marine / USAF units assigned to CENTCOM can already handle any possible mission package.
- NOTE: No additional USAF resources need be noted. The theater currently has enough USAF assets to sustain limited or even heavy strikes on Syria. However, if NATO allies (Turkey, Italy, UK, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Germany, etc...) indicate their bases may be used by the US, then it may indicate a near-term attack is being readied.
- NOTE: US Congress approval of attack not needed, but it is preferred.
- NOTE: Once the Russian CG's enter the theater, than the chance of attack lowers (ETA 2-6 weeks from today). If the Russian TF passes through or patrols west of Cyprus, then the attack might still occur.
