August 31 Syria Crisis SITREP

Syria SITREP (Aug 31)

Allied Attack no time soon

The various involved powers continue to maneuver, but the expected allied massing of power is shifting downward.

USA:

The USS Truman CSG assumed the Nimitz CSG OEF duties in the Arabian Sea. This places them in a follow up role at best, and probably a non-player role unless they shift into Arabian Gulf.

The USS Kearsarge ARG seems to be shifting eastward, as the LSD-Carter Hall made a port call in the Seychelles. If the ARG were to participate, it would consolidate and move westward, but they're not ...so they're not getting involved either.

The media made hay about the addition of a fifth destroyer to the Syria task force, but that interpretation is wrong. The USS Stout is being sent to relieve the Mahan, not join it ...so it's still only 4-DDG's. If the US wanted a fifth, then it could shift the Bainbridge back to the Mediterranean from the Indian Ocean, or donate any of the Nimitz or Truman's DDG Escorts ...but they aren't. It was noted that the USS Barry and Gravely conducted a surface warfare exercise with the FS Aconit between Cyprus and Crete. This places the two lead DDG's in a defensive position outside any Syrian anti-ship missile strike range, instead of cruising the Lebanese or Syria coasts, which is where I would expect them to be as an advanced screen and capable of deep scanning and even controlling Syrian airspace with their AEGIS radar systems. The Barry is noted as being tasked to EUCOM as an ABM patrol destroyer, so they should be able to handle ANYTHING Syria can dish out (cruise missiles, AS missiles, and ballistic missiles). To have it behind Cyprus means we have no stomach for anything the Syrians might do or say, nor are we interested in applying an advanced defensive ABM role to the situation to protect Turkey or Europe ...or even Israel from a Syrian strike.

The command ship USS Mt. Whitney is still off radar after it's visit to France a couple weeks ago. It should technically be available for deployment to Syria on short notice, but has yet to announce any participation.

UNITED KINGDOM:

The UK amphibious battle-group, currently deployed for the COUGAR 2013 (Mediterranean and Indian Ocean), is busy launching planned amphibious training exercises off Albania. The 2-FFG escorts remain west of Cyprus ...they aren't involved. So far the RAF has sent only an additional 6-Typhoon fighter-bombers to Cyprus. That's not enough to matter or care, and the House of Commons seems to prefer that as the official response.

FRANCE:

No noted activity directed at Syria ...talk is cheap.

RUSSIA:

The only country to do something interesting is Russia. The Moskva Task Force is being sent to the Mediterranean to supplement their patrol there ...which means nothing special because they were going to do that anyway, and nothing in their patrol schedule has changed much. The Russians also mentioned that the RFS Varyag from the Pacific Fleet would sortie out to the Mediterranean ...which means nothing because it easily takes a month to get there. However, once the Moskva and/or the Varyag get there, the Russian task force will be scarey enough to keep NATO on edge. However, all things considered, in spite of all the talk, NEVER would Russia take forceful action against NATO on account of Syria. Syria just isn't that important, and Russia won't risk their flagships being shot full of holes and irreparably lost. Instead, having such powerful flagships in theater provides valuable assets on hand for other things, such as monitoring NATO / US operational abilities (IE. spying), being available in case Russia needs to directly act in Syria (IE. evacuations or direct covert actions), and for waving a big anti-US flag and looking like they really care in diplomatic circles.

CHINA:

The 14^th and 15^th Escort Task Forces remain in the Gulf of Aden, and if they wanted to respond, then they could within 3-days or so. Such a response would probably be noted as you can't pass through the Suez Canal without someone seeing it ...then everyone would be wondering why they're sticking their nose into NATO's business. True, NATO said they officially don't want to get involved in Syria, but make no mistake, the Mediterranean belongs to NATO, and nothing happens there without their concurrence. The US might act alone, but NATO will be involved.

WHAT I'M WATCHING FOR:

Right now any action would be very limited (DDG cruise missile strikes, USAF B1 / B2 bombers and/or fighter-bombers). The US is maintaining a checkmate position on Iran, but has brought very little to bear on Syria itself. Our current position is defensive, and even that is minimal. We have the ability to slap a good coastal blockade with our DDG's (with excellent ADA / ABM abilities), but it's not been done yet. The only command elements brought to bear on the situation are CENTCOM Army / USAF resources. No naval command resources are on task yet other than the standard EUCOM C4 command chain from NATO. No CVN's are on task ...no cruisers either ...so, nothing is happening any time soon.

But, if these movements or options go into play, then the attack timer will resume.

• USS Mt. Whitney heads into East Mediterranean.
• USS Nimitz CSG heads into Red Sea, or half it's escorts (1-CG and 1-DDG), transit the Suez. If the CSG heads into Red Sea, it may indicate a near term attack, because the carrier is due back home very soon. If the escorts move into the Mediterranean, then it may indicate an effort to reinforce the current mission in the Mediterranean with added command, strike and ADA/ABM abilities.
• USS George HW Bush CSG deploys before completing JTFEX at home (indicates 2-week attack window).
• USS Bainbridge returns to Mediterranean post-haste.
• NATO-SNMG-1 returns to Mediterranean post-haste.
• UK debate resumes, and Type-45 DDGs and more RAF head that direction.
• French CVN heads into Mediterranean, with at least 1-Forbin Class DDG joining, and 1+ Stealth FFG joining, and/or the FS Aconit staying in the Mediterranean.
• French AF fighters shifting around.
• French amphibious ships (Mistral-Class) heading into Mediterranean (to support their UNIFIL troops deployed in Lebanon)
• Italian CV or amphibious ships heading into Mediterranean (this may mean they likewise sense the immediate need to support their unit deployed to UNIFIL in Lebanon).
• NOTE: USS Kearsarge heading into Mediterranean doesn't indicate a strike. The Boxer is en-route to relieve them, and the Kearsarge is due home soon. The idea of having an amphibious strike group in Mediterranean might attract lots of media attention, but there isn't any need for them except as a covert action insertion group, in case something or someone requires capture and extraction, and I'm sure existing Army / Marine / USAF units assigned to CENTCOM can already handle any possible mission package.
• NOTE: No additional USAF resources need be noted. The theater currently has enough USAF assets to sustain limited or even heavy strikes on Syria. However, if NATO allies (Turkey, Italy, UK, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Germany, etc...) indicate their bases may be used by the US, then it may indicate a near-term attack is being readied.
• NOTE: US Congress approval of attack not needed, but it is preferred.
• NOTE: Once the Russian CG's enter the theater, than the chance of attack lowers (ETA 2-6 weeks from today). If the Russian TF passes through or patrols west of Cyprus, then the attack might still occur.