Sunday, March 30, 2014

March 23-29 Weekly News & Log Updates


WEEKLY NEWS & LOG UPDATE
March 23 – March 29
NAVAL-MARINE OPERATIONS
CHINA
16th ESCORT TASK FORCE
    See EU-Operation ATALANTA
FRANCE
WEST AFRICA CORYMBE TASK FORCE
·         Task Force: FS Commadant Birot (Frigate)
·         (Mar 24) FS Cmdt Birot completes CORYMBE patrol, is relieved by JEANNE DE ARC Task Force (MOD)
JEAN DE ARC TASK FORCE
·         Task Force: FS Mistral (Assault Ship); FS La Fayette (Frigate)
·         (Mar 22-26) @ Atlantic; Task Force begins CORYMBE Phase with bilateral exercise EMERALD MISTRAL with Senegal (MOD)
FS Jean Bart (Destroyer)
·         (Mar 20) @ Arabian Sea; French Destroyer FS Jean Bart participates in joint naval exercises with Indian Navy off Goa and Mumbai (MOD)
RUSSIA
MEDITERRANEAN TASK FORCE
    NO NEWS
UNITED KINGDOM
JOINT WARRIOR
·         (Mar 24) UK carrier HMS Illustrious and frigate HMS Kent departs Portsmouth for large NATO joint exercises JOINT WARRIOR off Scotland (Royal Navy) …UK units include:
o    HMS Bulwark (LPD)
o    HMS Illustrious (Carrier)
o    HMS Dauntless (DDG)
o    HMS Dragon (DDG)
o    HMS Kent (FFG)
o    4-MCMs
o    3-RFA LSDs
o    3 Commando
HMS Dauntless (Destroyer)
·         (Mar 27) @ Newcastle; UK Destroyer visits its affiliated city, it’s not open for tours, but will hosts visits by the Sea Cadets and local dignitaries (Royal Navy)
HMS Protector (Ice Patrol Ship)
·         (Mar 28) @ Antarctica; UK Ice Patrol Ship HMS Protector reaches Marguerite Bay, continue scientific studies and charting remote waters (Royal Navy)
UNITED STATES
US CARRIER STRIKE GROUPS
USS Lincoln (CVN-72)
·         (Mar 28) @ Newport News; USN Carrier reaches 1-year mark in its RCOH mid-life refueling (USN)
USS Truman CSG
·         (Mar 28) @ Suez Canal; CSG exits 5th Fleet AOR, enters Mediterranean (USN)
 
US AMPHIBIOUS READY GROUPS & COMMAND SHIPS
USS Blue Ridge (LCC-19)
·         (Mar 28) @ Japan; USN Command Ship concludes WESTPAC patrol, continues Security Reaction Force-Basic training started on Mar 9 (USN)
USS BH Richard ARG
·         (Mar 27) @ E. China Sea; ARG begins Exercise SSANG YONG 2014 with S. Korea and USMC 3rd MEB (USN)
·         (Mar 25) @ Okinawa; ARG departs White Beach, Okinawa with 3rd MEB, will participate in Exercise SSANG YONG (Mar 27 to April 7) with S. Korean Navy and Marines (USN)
 
US WARSHIPS
EXERCISE MULTI-SAIL 14
·         (Mar 26) @ Pacific; USN forward deployed warships participate in 7th Fleet major exercise MULTI-SAIL-14 (USN)  …units include
o    USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG-54)
o    USS John McCain (DDG-56)
o    USS Lassen (DDG-82)
o    USS McCampbell (DDG-85)
o    USS Shiloh (CG-67)
EXERCISE NOBLE DINA
·         (Mar 26) @ Mediterranean; USN begins active phase of naval exercise NOBLE DINA with Greece and Israel (USN) …units include
o    USS Donald Cook (DDG-75)
o    USS Ramage (DDG-61)
o    USNS Lenthall (T-AO-189)
o    P-3 aircraft from Patrol Squadron-3
USS RG Bradley (FFG-49)
·         (Mar 28) @ Mayport; USN Frigate is decommissioned after nearly 30-years of service (USN)
USS Frank Cable (AS-40)
·         (Mar 27) @ Thailand; USN submarine tender visits Sattahip, is visited by Thai chefs for cooking lessons in Thai food (USN)  
USS Miami (SSN-755)
·         (Mar 28) @ Maine; USN formally decommissions the Los Angeles Class Fast Attack Submarine USS Miami (USN)
OTHER REGIONAL POWERS / ORGANIZATIONS
EU – OPERATION ATALANTA (CTF-465)
    (Mar 28) @ Crete; German Frigate FGS Brandenburg visits Souda Bay while en-route to Gulf of Aden (Bundesmarine)
    (Mar 19-20) @ Gulf of Aden; ATALANTA LST FS Siroco and Frigate FGS Hessen participate in Exercise GOLDEN STAR with Chinese Frigate PLAN Yancheng and oiler PLAN Taihu (MOD)
    (Mar 18) @ Indian Ocean; French LST FS Siroco refuels with USNS Pecos during anti-piracy patrol off Horn of Africa (MOD)
NATO – OPERATION OCEAN SHIELD (CTF-508) (Patrolled by NATO-SNMG-2)
    NO NEWS
NATO – SNMG-1
    (Mar 26) @ Norway; German Corvette FGS Magdeburg conducts small-ship exercises with Norwegian Skjold Class patrol ships and frigate Thor Heyerdahl (Bundesmarine)
GERMANY
·         (Mar 28) @ Wilhelmshaven; German Frigate FGS Bremen is decommissioned following 32 years of service (Bundesmarine)
ITALY
·         (Mar 27) @ Mediterranean; ITS San Giorgio (LHD) rescues 218-Migrants during Operation Mare Nostrum, then transports them to Augusta, Sicily (DIFESA)
AIR-GROUND OPERATIONS
AFRICA
NO NEWS
AMERICAS
NO NEWS
ASIA / PACIFIC
RUSSIA
·         (Mar 28) Russia has started preparations to terminate bilateral agreements with Ukraine, including the 1997 agreement for the Black Sea Fleet (RIA Novosti)
EUROPE
UKRAINE
·         (Mar 27) Ukraine says 100,000 Russian troops are massing in its borders, are staging opposite Kharkiv and Donetsk. Ukraine expects an invasion any day now (Defense News)
·         (Mar 27) UN General Assembly approves referendum calling Crimean secession from Ukraine invalid (CNN)

Friday, March 28, 2014

Ukraine SITREP (Mar 28)


UKRAINE SITREP

March 28, 2014

 

Several news sources report the Russians are massing 100,000 troops near the border in Russia. Territories mentioned are…

 

·         Kursk

·         Belgorod

·         Rostov

·         Tambov

 

Today, the news reports state that supply lines are being constructed and reinforced in Russia, possibly indicating preparation for offensive actions. Without having prior information on the composition of Russian forces in these zone, the 4-zones appear to be possible staging areas for certain offensive actions and targets

 

·         Belgorod: positioned well to strike and hold Kharkiv and surrounding areas

·         Rostov: positioned well to strike and hold Donetsk and surrounding areas

·         Kursk: positioned well to control the northern flank and strike Kiev

·         Tambov: positioned well to support Belgorod and Kursk strike operations with follow-on troops and supplies

 

OBSERVATIONS:

No corresponding reinforcement has been mentioned at Volgograd, which would support the Rostov strike units. This could mean either…

 

·         Volgograd, which is a major hub for operations for the Caucasus, needs no additional prep for Rostov operations, or…

·         The primary axis of action will be from Kursk and Belgorod, and operations from Rostov is expected to be sharp but not long

 

No movement of Russian troops has been mentioned inside Belarus, which may mean no major rear flanking action west of Kiev is anticipated. However, the Russian AF has been reinforcing their units in Belarus. This action would allow deep strike and supporting air dominance over western Ukraine and Kiev, as well as providing air control along Lithuania and Poland’s border, which would provide a feint versus NATO. Also, please note that Russia maintains a handful of tactical ballistic missile strike units in Belarus and Kaliningrad, which would be useful in western Ukraine and as a threat to NATO positions in Poland and Lithuania. NATO is obligated to protect Poland and Lithuania, not Ukraine. If NATO is forced to choose, they’ll let Ukraine fail and preserve Poland & Lithuania.

 

Recently, I heard briefly of a Russian exercise in Moldova, in the Trans-Dniester enclave. This enclave is currently controlled by a Russian peacekeeper / paratrooper brigade. NATO has been speculating Russia may forcibly annex the enclave next. However, the forward position of the brigade, and its proximity to the western Ukraine border, being about a 50km drive down the M16 highway from the border, makes it an ideal rear flanking unit with the ability to strike and seize Odessa, a very strategic city and naval base on the Black Sea. The enclave has an airport at Tiraspol (runway is about 1.5km long) but is listed as inoperable. However, the Russian exercise was rumored as involving a division sized unit. It’s possible that the airfield is in good enough condition for Russian forces to utilize, but not good enough for civilian traffic. If any rear flank strike were to emanate from the enclave, then its logistics would be in jeopardy within 1-week, unless it was able to seize the Odessa port and ferry amphibious reinforcements from Sevestopol simultaneously. If logistics were pre-staged, then strategic surprise is potentially lost.

 

The current status of the Ukrainian military is unknown. Based on observations and news reports, army units are fragmented and rebuilding. The Ukrainian government has established a new National Guard and opened it up to recruitment by the general populace in an effort to supplement the active army. The heavy use of passive defenses on the border indicates weakness. If Russia were to strike, I expect Ukrainian units to either surrender or put up resistance while retreating. No real punishing resistance is expected until the Russian vanguard reaches the Dnepr or Kiev. Any units east of the Dnepr, unless they’re capable of fighting on the run or melting and acting unconventionally, runs the risk of being destroyed or captured (i.e. Air defense, artillery, armor, etc…). Another 6-months is needed to make the army operation-ready. An effective army takes 10-years to build from scratch.

 

If the Russians do initiate a strike operation versus the Ukraine, I expect…

·         The Russian AF will achieve air-supremacy in short order, and use it to dominate the ground.

·         The Russian Navy will achieve naval supremacy in short order, and use it to control Odessa. Amphibious operations versus Odessa is possible in concert with flanking feint from Moldova.

·         The Russian Army will rapidly seize Kharkiv and Donetsk as primary targets, “liberating” the Russian population there.

·         The Russian Army units in Kursk will act to secure the Northern flank (Kharkiv to Belarus). Kursk units may drive deep to Kiev in effort to topple pro-Europe “ultra-nationalist” regime, securing Russia’s frontier versus the West.

·         The Russian units in Crimea will act to secure the southern flank, possibly donating 30-60% of their forces to clearing the southern Dnepr natural boundary from infiltration, and flanking Kiev and/or Odessa.

·         Marching west of Kiev is very risky for Russian forces. The population is thoroughly anti-Russian and a bloody insurgency is very possible. Capturing Kiev and placing a pro-Russian regime in place, and never entering western Ukraine, is very plausible. Using Russian forces to secure Kiev and the new regime is likely, preventing a counter-revolution. Splitting the country at the Dnepr is likewise possible.

 

 

 

 

 




 

Monday, March 24, 2014

March 16 - 22 Weekly News & Log Updates


WEEKLY NEWS & LOG UPDATE
March 16 – March 22
NAVAL-MARINE OPERATIONS
CHINA
16th ESCORT TASK FORCE
    (Mar 20) @ Mediterranean; Chinese frigate PLAN Huangshan completes its 9th escort mission of Syrian chemical weapons (People's Daily)
PLAN Haixun 01 (Rescue Ship)
·         (Mar 18) @ S. China Sea; Chinese rescue ship departs for Singapore, will patrol near the Sunda Strsits and assist in the search for missing airliner MH370 (People's Daily)
PLAN Qiandaohu (Supply Ship)
·         (Mar 17) @ S. China Sea; Chinese supply ship resupply’s PLAN Haikou and Mianyang during search for missing airliner MH370 (People's Daily)
FRANCE
WEST AFRICA CORYMBE TASK FORCE
·         Task Force: FS Commadant Birot (Frigate)
·         NO NEWS
JEAN DE ARC TASK FORCE
·         Task Force: FS Mistral (Assault Ship); FS La Fayette (Frigate)
·         (Mar 13) @ Atlantic; Task Force conducts amphibious exercise at Belle Isle (MOD)  
RUSSIA
MEDITERRANEAN TASK FORCE
   NO NEWS
RFS Vladivostok (Assault Ship)
·         (Mar 20) Russia says France must fulfill their delivery contract or return money, completion of the assault ships Vladivostok and Sevastopol have been in question since the Crimean crisis and initiation of EU sanctions (RIA Novosti)
UNITED KINGDOM
HMS Defender (Destroyer)
·         (Mar 19) UK destroyer completes 5-weeks of pre-deployment training (Royal Navy)
HMAS Ballarat (Australian Frigate)
·         (Mar 21) @ Indian Ocean; Australian frigate HMAS Ballarat and HMAS Success (Supply Ship) participate in Exercise BLUE RAPTOR during Operation Slipper patrol (AU)
UNITED STATES
US CARRIER STRIKE GROUPS
USS Bush CSG
·         (Mar 21) @ Black Sea; USN destroyer departs Black Sea after concluding PASSEX with NATO allies (USN)
·         (Mar 19) @ Red Sea; USN Strike Group enters 5th Fleet AOR after transiting Suez Canal (USN)
·         (Mar 19) @ Black Sea; USN destroyer conducts PASSEX and training with Romania and Bulgaria (USN)
USS Truman CSG
·         (Mar 19) @ Gulf of Oman; USN strike group concludes support for OEF (USN)
USS Vinson CSG
·         (Mar 21) @ San Diego; Carrier group concludes Fleet Synthetic Training in preparation for COMPTUEX and JTFEX pre-deployment training (USN)
 
US AMPHIBIOUS READY GROUPS & COMMAND SHIPS
USS Bataan ARG
·         (Mar 8) @ Israel; USN Landing ship USS Mesa Verde conducts tours of Israel during port visit (USN)
USS Blue Ridge (LCC-19)
·         (Mar 18) @ Philippines; USN Command ship visits Manila, conducts ship tours, military exchanges, and recreational events (USN)
USS Mount Whitney (LCC-20)
·         (Mar 20) @ Italy; USN Command Ship for 6th Fleet completes 3-days of underway readiness training (USN)
 
US WARSHIPS
USS Kidd (DDG-100)
·         (Mar 18) @ Andaman Sea; USN destroyer is detached from SAR efforts for missing airliner MH370, nothing has been found (USN)
USS Simpson (FFG-56)
·         (Mar 20) @ Mayport; USN frigate returns from 6th Fleet deployment (DOD-Live)
USS Wayne E Meyer (DDG-108)
·         (Mar 20) @ San Diego; USN destroyer begins 7th Fleet / WESTPAC deployment (USN)
USNS Spearhead (JHSV-1)
·         (Mar 10-14) @ Atlantic; USN high speed vessel participates in Exercise Saharan Express off Morocco (USN)
OTHER REGIONAL POWERS / ORGANIZATIONS
EU – OPERATION ATALANTA (CTF-465)
    (Mar 18) @ Wilhelmshanven; German supply ship FGS Rhon departs for EU Operation ATALANTA patrol in Indian Ocean, is expected to return home in June (Bundesmarine)
    (Mar 17) @ Wilhelmshaven; German frigate FGS Brandenburg departs for EU Operation ATALANTA patrol in Indian Ocean (Bundesmarine)
    (Mar 13) @ Gulf of Aden; French LST FS Siroco refuels Greek frigate HS Psara (MOD)
    (Feb 20) @ Gulf of Aden; Greek Frigate HS Psara joins EU Operation ATALANTA, begins patrol (EU)
    (Feb 13) @ Greece; Greek frigate HS Psara (F-454 – Hydra Class WIKI) departs for EU Operation Atalanta (EU)
NATO – OPERATION OCEAN SHIELD (CTF-508) (Patrolled by NATO-SNMG-2)
    (Mar 21) @ Seychelles; Netherlands frigate HMNLS Evertsen delivered badly injured civilian sailor from French fishing vessel Belouve to Seychelles for medical treatment (NATO)
    (Mar 19) @ Djibouti; Spanish frigate SPS Cristobal Colon replaces SPS Alvaro De Bazan as Flagship for SNMG-2 until US Navy assumes control this summer (NATO)
NATO – SNMG-1
    NO NEWS
INDIA
·         (Mar 20) @ Bay of Bengal; Indian warships and aircraft participate in search operations for missing airliner MH370 (Indian Navy) …units include
o    INS Batti Malv (T67 – Bangaram Class OPS)
o    INS Sahyadri (F49 – Shivalik FFG)
o    INS Saryu (P54 – Saryu Class OPS)
o    INS Satpura (F48 – Shivalik Class FFG)
ITALY
·         (Mar 19) @ Mediterranean; Italian assault ship ITS San Giusto, frigate ITS Euro and Patrol Ship Cigala Fulgosi, Coast Guard cutters 302 and 305, rescued 596 migrants (DIFESA)  
AIR-GROUND OPERATIONS
AFRICA
NO NEWS
AMERICAS
NO NEWS
ASIA / PACIFIC
NO NEWS
EUROPE
UKRAINE
·         (Mar 22) 2,000 of 18,000 Ukrainian troops stationed in Crimea return to Ukraine with their families (RIA Novosti)
·         (Mar 18) Russian lawmaker says Crimea could take control of half of Ukraine’s Navy (about 20-ships), and eventually turn them over to Russia (RIA Novosti)
·         (Mar 18) Crimea requires Tatars to vacate land and relocate in effort to resolve squatting by Tatars returning to their native land (RIA Novosti)
·         (Mar 18) @ Sevestopol; Russians storm and capture Ukrainian naval base, base commander detained (BBC)
·         (Mar 18) @ Crimea; Ukrainian and Russian soldier killed during clash at Simferopol Ukrainian Army Vehicle Pool Base
·         (Mar 17) EU and US impose travel and asset freezes on Russian and Crimean officials (BBC)
·         (Mar 17) Ukraine partially mobilizes the country’s reserve forces, Sky News reports anti-tank traps and trenches being placed on border near Donetsk, Anti-Air units moving towards border (RIA Novosti)
·         (Mar 16) Crimea votes to join Russian Federation (RIA Novosti)