UKRAINE SITREP
March 28, 2014
Several news sources report the Russians are massing 100,000
troops near the border in Russia. Territories mentioned are…
·
Kursk
·
Belgorod
·
Rostov
·
Tambov
Today, the news reports state that supply lines are being constructed
and reinforced in Russia, possibly indicating preparation for offensive actions.
Without having prior information on the composition of Russian forces in these
zone, the 4-zones appear to be possible staging areas for certain offensive
actions and targets
·
Belgorod: positioned well to strike and hold
Kharkiv and surrounding areas
·
Rostov: positioned well to strike and hold
Donetsk and surrounding areas
·
Kursk: positioned well to control the northern
flank and strike Kiev
·
Tambov: positioned well to support Belgorod and
Kursk strike operations with follow-on troops and supplies
OBSERVATIONS:
No corresponding reinforcement has been mentioned at
Volgograd, which would support the Rostov strike units. This could mean either…
·
Volgograd, which is a major hub for operations
for the Caucasus, needs no additional prep for Rostov operations, or…
·
The primary axis of action will be from Kursk
and Belgorod, and operations from Rostov is expected to be sharp but not long
No movement of Russian troops has been mentioned inside
Belarus, which may mean no major rear flanking action west of Kiev is anticipated.
However, the Russian AF has been reinforcing their units in Belarus. This action
would allow deep strike and supporting air dominance over western Ukraine and
Kiev, as well as providing air control along Lithuania and Poland’s border,
which would provide a feint versus NATO. Also, please note that Russia maintains
a handful of tactical ballistic missile strike units in Belarus and
Kaliningrad, which would be useful in western Ukraine and as a threat to NATO
positions in Poland and Lithuania. NATO is obligated to protect Poland and Lithuania,
not Ukraine. If NATO is forced to choose, they’ll let Ukraine fail and preserve
Poland & Lithuania.
Recently, I heard briefly of a Russian exercise in Moldova,
in the Trans-Dniester enclave. This enclave is currently controlled by a
Russian peacekeeper / paratrooper brigade. NATO has been speculating Russia may
forcibly annex the enclave next. However, the forward position of the brigade,
and its proximity to the western Ukraine border, being about a 50km drive down
the M16 highway from the border, makes it an ideal rear flanking unit with the
ability to strike and seize Odessa, a very strategic city and naval base on the
Black Sea. The enclave has an airport at Tiraspol (runway is about 1.5km long)
but is listed as inoperable. However, the Russian exercise was rumored as involving
a division sized unit. It’s possible that the airfield is in good enough
condition for Russian forces to utilize, but not good enough for civilian
traffic. If any rear flank strike were to emanate from the enclave, then its
logistics would be in jeopardy within 1-week, unless it was able to seize the
Odessa port and ferry amphibious reinforcements from Sevestopol simultaneously.
If logistics were pre-staged, then strategic surprise is potentially lost.
The current status of the Ukrainian military is unknown. Based
on observations and news reports, army units are fragmented and rebuilding. The
Ukrainian government has established a new National Guard and opened it up to
recruitment by the general populace in an effort to supplement the active army.
The heavy use of passive defenses on the border indicates weakness. If Russia were
to strike, I expect Ukrainian units to either surrender or put up resistance
while retreating. No real punishing resistance is expected until the Russian vanguard
reaches the Dnepr or Kiev. Any units east of the Dnepr, unless they’re capable
of fighting on the run or melting and acting unconventionally, runs the risk of
being destroyed or captured (i.e. Air defense, artillery, armor, etc…). Another
6-months is needed to make the army operation-ready. An effective army takes
10-years to build from scratch.
If the Russians do initiate a strike operation versus the Ukraine,
I expect…
·
The Russian AF will achieve air-supremacy in
short order, and use it to dominate the ground.
·
The Russian Navy will achieve naval supremacy in
short order, and use it to control Odessa. Amphibious operations versus Odessa
is possible in concert with flanking feint from Moldova.
·
The Russian Army will rapidly seize Kharkiv and
Donetsk as primary targets, “liberating” the Russian population there.
·
The Russian Army units in Kursk will act to
secure the Northern flank (Kharkiv to Belarus). Kursk units may drive deep to
Kiev in effort to topple pro-Europe “ultra-nationalist” regime, securing Russia’s
frontier versus the West.
·
The Russian units in Crimea will act to secure
the southern flank, possibly donating 30-60% of their forces to clearing the southern
Dnepr natural boundary from infiltration, and flanking Kiev and/or Odessa.
·
Marching west of Kiev is very risky for Russian
forces. The population is thoroughly anti-Russian and a bloody insurgency is
very possible. Capturing Kiev and placing a pro-Russian regime in place, and
never entering western Ukraine, is very plausible. Using Russian forces to
secure Kiev and the new regime is likely, preventing a counter-revolution.
Splitting the country at the Dnepr is likewise possible.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/28/concerns-mount-over-russian-troop-buildup-on-ukraine-border/
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